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Joined 3 months ago
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Cake day: November 25th, 2024

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  • Thanks for high effort reply.

    The Chinese companies probably use SIMC over TSMC from now on. They were able to do low volume 7 nm last year. Also, Nvidia and “China” are not on the same spot on the tech s-curve. It will be much cheaper for China (and Intel/AMD) to catch up, than it will be for Nvidia to maintain the lead. Technological leaps and reverse engineering vs dimishing returns.

    Also, expect that the Chinese government throws insane amounts of capital at this sector right now. So unless Stargate becomes a thing (though I believe the Chinese invest much much more), there will not be fair competition (as if that has ever been a thing anywhere anytime). China also have many more tools, like optional command economy. The US has nothing but printing money and manipulating oligarchs on a broken market.

    I’m not sure about 80/10 exactly of course, but it is in that order of magnitude, if you’re willing to not run newest fancy stuff. I believe the MI300X goes for approx 1/2 of the H100 nowadays and is MUCH better on paper. We don’t know the real performance because of NDA (I believe). It used to be 1/4. If you look at VRAM per $, the ratio is about 1/10 for the 1/4 case. Of course, the price gap will shrink at the same rate as ROCm matures and customers feel its safe to use AMD hardware for training.

    So, my bet is max 2 years for “China”. At least when it comes to high-end performance per dollar. Max 1 year for AMD and Intel (if Intel survive).





  • Yeah. I don’t believe market value is a great indicator in this case. In general, I would say that capital markets are rational at a macro level, but not micro. This is all speculation/gambling.

    My guess is that AMD and Intel are at most 1 year behind Nvidia when it comes to tech stack. “China”, maybe 2 years, probably less.

    However, if you can make chips with 80% performance at 10% price, its a win. People can continue to tell themselves that big tech always will buy the latest and greatest whatever the cost. It does not make it true. I mean, it hasn’t been true for a really long time. Google, Meta and Amazon already make their own chips. That’s probably true for DeepSeek as well.








  • This is basically my experience of western millennial women from upper middle class. But they do it unconsciously.

    They read all the feminist literature and talk about it a lot. But then they for sure expect you to pay for everything and handle all practical things… After all you earn more (because you’re older, work more and didn’t go for a useless art or HR degree). Also, you have to account for all bad things that happenes to other women in different places and time. Grrr…

    They also feel very confused because of this big central hypocracy in their life. But whatever you do, don’t mention it or question their self-image. That will just cause more work and expenses.


  • sith@lemmy.ziptoWorld News@lemmy.mlZionism is imperialism
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    3 months ago

    Isreal has created a situation where they rely on the far-right in the US for their survival. The same people that was openly anti-semitic about 15 years ago. And will be again, as soon as they forget about the current anti-muslim hype (which is waning). At the same time they have created a situation where maybe 50 million people are willing to die if it means removing Israel from the map, and maybe 6 billion people who thinks it’s probably a good idea if Isreal is removed.

    USA and the EU has to prepare for 10 million Jewish Israeli refugees, within this century. I believe.

    The US Israel lobby is largely responsible for this situation. Responsible because they’ve pushed the US into a position where they reward Isreal for whatever crazy fundamentalist genocide agenda they run. And Israel is now so good at the operative and tactical level, that they’ve completely forgotten about the strategic and geopolitical level. For which they will pay sooner or later (tiresome comparing with Nazi Germany, but the situation is very similar).

    I feel sorry for all the Arabs that are victims because of this. And I feel sorry for the many Israelis who actually did not vote for the current far-right sionist regime and its suicidal strategy.