It’s so interesting that you say “even though it’s self serving”. In a reductive framework, we can say there are three types of relationships: we both lose (lose-lose), we both win (win-win), and one of us loses so the other can win (win-lose).

It sounds like China is presenting itself as an alternative to Western dominance, which is a win for those being dominated, and it is doing so to its own advantage. That sounds like win-win. Are you saying China should adopt a win-lose position where it helps other countries win but does not itself win? If so, why is that the standard you hold?

Back to the question though, keeping the war going is incredibly dangerous for Russia. It directs resources that could be used for domestic production or production for export and instead those resources are being turned into bombs that have negative value. At the same time, it continues to evolve the state of NATO, a transnational nuclear military that is designed specifically to destroy the Russian military. This continued evolution of NATO always runs the risk of it becoming something Russia cannot handle. Peace would be preferable on this axis alone, let alone the economic one.

Further, the more Russia keeps the war going the more “at bats” the West gets to develop neutralization of Russian capabilities. Essentially, theonger Russia remains at war, the strong the immune system of the West becomes against Russia specifically.

Finally, a hot conflict on one front locks away resources, focus, and logistics to that front. Should another front open up, Russia will be incredibly vulnerable. This is another reason Russia would prefer to stop the war.

So let’s take your position, that the Russia continues the war because it weakens the connection between the core and the periphery, specifically via the mechanism you called fatigue - global fatigue or fatigue at a global scale.

Fatigue because the West is arming Ukraine? That seems more like a problem for residents of the West, not anyone in the periphery. If anything, the periphery is getting the opposite of fatigue, they are getting respite. While the empire is focused elsewhere, it has less resources to oppress the periphery.

Further, the failure of the West to emerge victorious is inspiration for the periphery. Their oppressors are being revealed as weaker than previously thought, and clearly nowhere near as totalizingly in control as Western propaganda makes the West out to be.

In these senses, I can see why Russia would continue the war, but not because of global fatigue but rather domestic fatigue in the West and inspiration and respite in the Global South.

But is that enough reason to take the large risks I detailed above? It seems like not. In fact, it seems like both domestic fatigue in the West and inspiration and respite have been achieved. If acting in short term self interest, Russia would stop the war. So there’s got to be something else.

Maybe by continuing the war Russia keeps the West distracted and wasteful, preventing it from consolidating its forces and resources, which prevents it from defending itself as the Global South asserts its independence and breaks ties with their oppressors. Perhaps it gives China more time to build up its defenses against a belligerent US. Perhaps it gives more time for the Global South to simply plan, coordinate, and establish ways of working that cut out the West.

Meanwhile, countries in the Global South see the West’s endless funding of the war and start asking why wars and genocides elsewhere (like in Palestine, Sudan, Yemen) don’t get the same attention or aid. That erodes Western moral authority globally, this alone is probably why you’re here on this platform today.

But then you say this. And it just seems like maybe you live in a fantasy land. The West does not have moral authority among the nations of the Global South. 80% of the world’s population was dominated by th European empire at its height. Peoples don’t readily forget the oppression that has been perpetuated for the last 500 years. The West throwing Ukraine into the meat grinder is part of a long history of this behavior. The Global South isn’t surprised by it, they are using it as a rallying point to concentrate their resistance to Western dominance.

From Putin’s view, even if Russia suffers economically, the systemic weakening of Western unity is a bigger win in the long run.

This would be assigning way more altruism to Putin than I would be willing to assign. Maintain the war is not in Russia’s best interest and weaking the West is good for everyone at the expense of whomever the West lashes out against. Why would Russia under Putin volunteer to take the brunt of the Western blowback in exchange for making the world a better place for the majority of people on it?