As the AI market continues to balloon, experts are warning that its VC-driven rise is eerily similar to that of the dot com bubble.
deleted by creator
Ah, the sudden realisation of all the VCs that they’ve tipped money into what is essentially a fancy version of predictive text.
Alexa proudly informed me the other day that Ray Parker Jr is Caucasian. We ain’t in any danger of the singularity yet, boys.
Alexa just confused Ray Parker Jr with Huey Lewis. It’s an easy mistake to make.
An apt analogy. Just like the web underlying technology is incredible and the hype is real, but it leads to endless fluff and stupid naive investments, many of which will lead nowhere. There were certainly be a lot of amazing advances using this tech in the coming decades, but for every one that is useful there will be 20 or 50 or 100 pieces of vaporware that is just trying to grab VC money.
In a few months there will be a new buzzword everyone will be jizzing themselves over.
deleted by creator
Ah yes who could have possibly seen this coming
The best way to make money in the gold rush was selling shovels.
Same idea here. Nvidia is making bank.
And that’s before you even point out that they were also making bank from the last gold rush
Good time to be in the GPU business
If nvda selling shovels, what is tsmc?
selling steel
And then you have ASML who sell the foundry equipment that makes the steel.
Fund these companies and take them public before the hype train derails. The VCs smell a greater fool, and it’s the IPO investor.
How much VC is really being invested at the moment? I know a variety of people at start ups and the money is very tight at the moment given the current interest rate environment.
Like 85% of the most recent YC class are “revolutionize x with AI” crap.
Every startup now:
If it crashes hard I look forward to all the cheap server hardware that will be in the secondhand market in a few years. One I’m particularly excited about is the 4000 sff, single slot, 75w, 20GB, and ~3070 performance.
I figured the gear they were using was orders of magnitude heftier than those cards. Stuff like the h100 cards that go for the price of a loaded SUV.
I think *LLMs to do everything is the bubble. AI isn’t going anywhere, we’ve just had a little peak of interest thanks to ChatGPT. Midjourney and the like aren’t going anywhere, but I’m sure we’ll all figure out that LLMs can’t really be trusted soon enough.
deleted by creator
I just want to make the distinction, that AI like this literally are black boxes. We (currently) have no ability to know why it chose the word it did for example. You train it, and under the hood you can’t actually read out the logic tree of why each word was chosen. That’s a major pitfall of AI development, its very hard to know how the AI arrived at a decision. You might know it’s right, or it’s wrong…but how did the AI decide this?
At a very technical level we understand HOW it makes decisions, we do not actively understand every decision it makes (it’s simply beyond our ability currently, from what I know)
You train it, and under the hood you can’t actually read out the logic tree of why each word was chosen.
Of course you can, you can look at every single activation and weight in the network. It’s tremendously hard to predict what the model will do, but once you have an output it’s quite easy to see how it came to be. How could it be bloody otherwise you calculated all that stuff to get the output, the only thing you have to do is to prune off the non-activated pathways. That kind of asymmetry is in the nature of all non-linear systems, a very similar thing applies to double pendulums: Once you observed it moving in a certain way it’s easy to say “oh yes the initial conditions must have looked like this”.
What’s quite a bit harder to do for the likes of ChatGPT compared to double pendulums is to see where they possibly can swing. That’s due to LLMs having a fuckton more degrees of freedom than two.
The thing is a lot of people are not using for that. They think it is a living omniscient sci-fi computer who is capable of answering everything, just like they saw in the movies. Noone thought that about keyboard auto-suggestions.
And with regards to people who aren’t very knowledgeable on the subject, it is difficult to blame them for thinking so, because that is how it is presented to them in a lot of news reports as well as adverts.
They think it is a living omniscient sci-fi computer who is capable of answering everything
Oh that’s nothing new:
On two occasions I have been asked [by members of Parliament], ‘Pray, Mr. Babbage, if you put into the machine wrong figures, will the right answers come out?’ I am not able rightly to apprehend the kind of confusion of ideas that could provoke such a question.
- Charles Babbage
deleted by creator
@Reva “Hey, should we use this statistical model that imitates language to replace my helpdesk personnel?” is an ethical question because bosses don’t listen when you outright tell them that’s a stupid idea.
deleted by creator
Where’s all the “NoOoOoO this isn’t like crypto it’s gonna be different” people at now?
I can derive value from LLMs. I already have. There’s no value in crypto. And if you tell me there is, I won’t agree. It’s bullshit. So is this, but to a lesser degree.
Mint some NFTs and tell me how that improves your life.
It’s always the same. They hear about it and then race to rape it to death along with anyone in their way. And then call it success. God is dead.
