• 5 Posts
  • 951 Comments
Joined 2 years ago
cake
Cake day: August 3rd, 2023

help-circle



  • People are generally shit at understanding probabilities and even when they have a fairly strong math background tend to explain probablistic outcomes through anthropomorphism rather than doing the more difficult and “think-painy” statistical analysis that would be required to know if there was anything more to it.

    I myself start to have thoughts that balatro is purposefully screwing me over or feeding me outcomes when it’s just randomness and probability as stated.

    Ultimately, it’s easier (and more fun) for us to think that way and it largely serves us better in everyday life.

    But these things are entire casinos’ worth of probability and statistics in and of themselves, and the people developing them want desperately to believe that they are something more than pseudorandom probabilistic fancy autocomplete engines.

    A lot of the folks at the forefront of this have paychecks on the line. Add the difficulty of getting someone to understand how something works when their salary depends on them not understanding it to the existing inability of humans to reason probabilistically and the AGI from LLM delusion becomes near impossible to shake for some folks.

    I wouldn’t be surprised if this AI hype bubble yields a cult in the end.










  • Yeah I mean there’s that but the reddit demo uses ad blockers frequently and ad-based content on reddit is already probably not that profitable. There’s a lot of people running astroturf campaigns for various things, but how are you seeing revenue out of that? Some schmuck buying the wrong type of portable speaker because of a crappy recommendation won’t add to reddit’s bottom line when it’s the speaker maker’s internal marketing intern. If anything, it’ll just further cause people to lose confidence in them.

    The only path they had toward profitability was feeding all of their user data into AIs for revenue from AI companies, but chatbots are also unprofitable and that revenue probably won’t even cover the costs to run the servers, and besides how many companies are going to be dumb enough to pay for that privilege? We’re talking about folks that already stole every piece of artwork, literature, and news article they could get their grubby little mitts on. Why would they continue to pay reddit?

    Ultimately the biggest conceit of the “attention economy” is the idea that attention automatically translates into dollars.

    (And they’re bleeding attention too.)